Okay: serious business!
Wie ich bereits schilderte, habe ich selbst quasi keine Chance mehr auf die Relegation und somit auf den Aufstieg. Es ist zwar weiterhin rechnerisch noch möglich, dass ich durchkomme, nach Betrachtung des Restprogramms der Konkurenz, mache ich mir aber nicht mehr wirklich Hoffnungen.
Das ist aber jetzt wirklich genug über mich. Die Regeln sehen vor, dass die ersten zwei Spieler direkt aufsteigen, Plätze 3-6 qualifizieren für die Teilnahme an der Relegation nach oben, 11-14 für die Relegation nach unten und Direktabsteiger sind die zwei Letztplatzierten. Ich werde das ganze einzeln durchgehen, analysieren wer auf was noch realistische Chancen hat, Vorhersagen treffen und die besonders spannenden Matches heraussuchen.
#15/#16: Direktabstieg
Weil TomFra aufgab, steht #16 bereits einige Wochen fest. #15 belegt momentan Eloids mit nur einem gewonnenen Match (gegen optik). Er hat allerdings noch 3 Spiele zu absolvieren, womit er noch maximal 9 Punkte sammeln kann. Damit kann er theoretisch noch #10 werden. Realistischer ist aber, dass er auf die Konkurenz noch maximal 6 Punkte, eher aber 0-3 Punkte aufholt. Mit weiteren 3 Punkten könnte er siieesch und optik erreichen, die jeweils bisher 2mal gewannen. Beide haben jeweils zwei Gegner, gegen die sie wahrscheinlich verlieren. Im Gegensatz zu optik steht für siieesch aber noch ein weiteres Match an: gegen Eloids. Leider sind meinem Eindruck nach alle drei nicht sehr motiviert, allzu viel Zeit in die EAS zu investieren. Insofern werden wahrscheinlich auch keine Krokodilstränen vergossen, wen auch immer es treffen wird.
Das entscheidene Spiel um den Direktabstieg dürfte jedenfalls siiesch vs. eloids werden: ein klassisches 6-Punkte Spiel sozusagen.
#11-#14: Relegation um den Abstieg
Wie schon gesagt sind optik und siieesch relativ sichere Wetten was die Plätze #13 und #14 angeht, sofern Eloids siieesch nicht schlägt, womit Eloids wahrscheinlich #14 und siieesch #15 wäre. Optik hat deutlich bessere Mapstats als die beiden anderen (7 gewonnene Maps gegenüber den 4 von siieesch und 3 von Eloids, wobei natürlich einer der beiden noch mindestens zwei holen wird). Rmdx, DerBozz und Clash, die die Plätze #10-12 belegen, haben alle derzeit 12 Punkte, so dass beinahe auszuschließen ist, dass optik und siieesch sie noch einholen können. Was die drei anderen angeht, ist die Situation jedoch sehr spannend, zumal Lefy und ich nur 3 Punkte und Zero nur 6 Punkte vor ihnen liegen. Clash hat nur noch 2 offene Matches und er hat mit Rmdx und Reyon keine leichten Gegner. Außerdem hat er die schlechtesten Mapstats. Ich glaube daher, dass er sich auf der Relegation behaupten werden muss. DerBozz hat zwar auch nur noch zwei Gegner, dafür ist aber siieesch ein Pflichtsieg für ihn. Zudem ist sein TvP wie schon beschrieben recht stark, so dass ihm ein Sieg gegen Loco durchaus zuzutrauen ist. Rmdx spielt noch gegen optik, Clash und Farmer. Die ersten zwei sollte er besiegen, da er momentan in bestechender Form ist (letzte Woche schlug er Cloud und StarEagle im Go4Sc2). Farmer spielt um den Direktaufstieg und wird sicher alles geben. Rmdx TvP kann sehr eklig sein und wenn Farmer ein wenig Pech mit Posis hat, könnte ersterer durchaus gewinnen. Lefy muss noch gegen mich und Acro ran. Es ist nicht unwahrscheinlich, dass er beide Spiele verliert. Dann würde er wahrscheinlich auf #11 oder #12 abstürzen, wodurch er Relegation spielen müsste. Denkbar ist natürlich auch, dass ich meine 3 verbleibenden Matches verliere und selber noch da unten reinrutsche. Ich glaube aber nicht daran. Meine Vorhersage ist, dass siiesch (bzw. eloids), optik, Clash und Lefy die Relegation gegen den Abstieg spielen werden.
Die entscheidenden Spiele auf dem Weg dahin werden voraussichtlich Clash vs. Rmdx und Lefy gegen mich sein. Lefy gegen Acro ist aber auch sehr spannend, weil Acro PvZ genau wie ich nicht besonders schätzt und insofern durchaus verlieren könnte, wobei es aber bei ihm auf jeden Punkt für den Aufstieg ankommt.
#3-#6: Relegation um den Aufstieg
Die EAS Div. 1 ist im oberen Bereich skillmäßig sehr eng besetzt. Rund 10 Spieler sind vom Niveau annähernd auf unterem EPS-Niveau anzusiedeln und soweit ich weiß sind alle Grandmaster (?). Platz #1 bis #9 haben zwischen 15 und 27 Punkte. Lefy hat nur noch 2 Matches zu absolvieren, womit er maximal auf 21 Punkte kommen könnte, was derzeit für #6 reichen würde. Da aber alle anderen noch mehr Spiele zu absolvieren haben, werden 21 Punkte am Ende nicht reichen. Falls ich alle meine 3 Partien gewinnen sollte, käme ich auf 24 Punkte, was unter günstigen Umständen reichen könnte. Zero dagegen hat schon relativ gute Chancen. Er steht momentan bei 18 Punkten und hat ebenfalls noch 3 offene Matches. Gegen optik wird er wahrscheinlich gewinnen und auch gegen Ghosta gebe ich ihm gute Chancen. Falls er auch noch gegen June gewinnen sollte, hätte er am Ende der Saison 27 Punkte, was gut reichen könnte. Auch wenn er gegen Ghosta oder June verlöre, würde er 24 Punkte erreichen und da er deutlich bessere Mapstats hat als ich, würde er auch damit nicht ganz schlecht dastehen. Die ersten vier der Div. 1 haben allerdings schon alle 27 Punkte und June, der noch 5 Matches vor sich hat, wird höchst wahrscheinlich zumindest eins davon gewinnen, womit auch er ziemlich sicher zumindest bei der Relegation dabei wäre. Es ist also davon auszugehen, dass Zero (und bzw. oder ich) höchstens hoffen können, Acro noch zu überholen. Letztgenannter hat jedoch noch 4 offene Partien, wovon er wahrscheinlich mindestens 2 gewinnen wird, was 27++ Punkte und damit wohl die Relegation bedeuten würde. Gegen Eloids hat er ziemlich gute Chancen. Auf sein Spiel gegen Lefy bin ich schon eingegangen und auch die Spiele gegen Loco und June dürften spannend werden. Sowohl das Gewinnen aller 4 Matches als auch das Verlieren von mehr als 2 ist eher unwahrscheinlich. Insofern hat Acro keine guten Chancen auf den Direktaufstieg mehr. Die Relegation zu erreichen ist dagegen gut möglich und er hat es selbst in der Hand. Die wahrscheinlichsten Relegationsteilnehmer sind damit Acro und Ghosta (der zwar 27 Punkte aber auch nur noch ein Spiel zu spielen hat) und ich denke, dass sie am Ende #5 und #6 einnehmen werden. Somit sind nur noch die zwei Relegationsplätze zu vergeben, die für die zwei Verlierer im Kampf um den Direktaufstieg vergeben werden.
Insofern sind bezüglich der Chance auf die Relegation die Spiele von mir, Zero und Acro gegen June wahrscheinlich am spannendsten. Meiner Einschätzung nach sollten alle drei dieser Matches auch ziemlich ansehnlich werden, so dass ich empfehlen würde, die entsprechenden Replays zu schauen (vielleicht machen wir dazu ein paar VODs 
).
#1/#2: Direktaufstieg
Um das ganze ein wenig zu vereinfachen, gehe ich mal davon aus, dass für den Direktaufstieg mindestens 33 Punkte benötigt werden und dass Acro nicht nur noch gewinnt (was aber nicht wirklich ausgeschlossen ist). Ghosta und Acro fallen damit aus der Rechnung, so dass nur noch Farmer, Reyon, June und Loco Chancen auf den Direktaufstieg haben (2P 1T 1Z Juchu). June ist hier quasi der Sonderfall, da er zwar 3 Punkte weniger als die anderen hat, er dafür aber noch 2 mehr offene Matches hat. Gegen siieesch wird er wohl gewinnen aber gegen Acro, Farmer, Zero und mich gebe ich ihm nur 30-60% Siegchancen. Wenn man das grob auf 50% rundet und somit davon ausgeht, dass er noch 3 auf 5 gewinnen wird, stünde er am Ende der Saison auf 33 Punkten und er hätte immernoch sehr sehr gute Mapstats. Was letzteres angeht ist Junes Teamkollege Farmer von den drei Punkt- Spielgleichen am besten aufgestellt. Insofern hat er sehr gute Chancen auf den Direktaufstieg. Er muss nur 2 aus 3 seiner durchaus schweren Matches gegen Rmdx, June und Reyon gewinnen, was ich ihm zutraue. Reyon ist derzeit zweiter und von den Mapstats eine verlorene Map besser als Loco und eine verlorene Map schlechter als Farmer. Er hat mit Clash, Farmer und mir das etwas leichtere Restprogramm aber Farmer hat es selbst in der Hand Reyon die Tour zu versauen. Gewänne Reyon alle 3 Partien müsste ich mir Gedanken um den Abstieg machen und Reyon wäre wohl sicher in der EPS. Loco muss noch gegen Acro, DerBozz und Eloids ran. Auch für ihn ist es auf jeden Fall machbar, auf 33 Punkte zu kommen. Vorstellbar wäre sogar, dass er alles gewinnt und auch einer der anderen noch richtig durchstartet, so dass am Ende sogar 36 Punkte für den Direktaufstieg hermüssten. Schade ist, dass Locos Match gegen Acro natürlich PvP ist. Ansonsten wäre hier sicherlich eine Empfehlung fällig. Ich finde fast jedes der beschriebenen Matches schwer einzuschätzen, wodurch es fast unmöglich ist, die Platzierungen vorherzusagen. Ich wage es trotzdem mal, 2 Direktaufsteiger zu tippen: Loco und Farmer.
Besonders sehenswert dürften hier alle Spiele von Farmer (gegen June, Reyon und Rmdx) sowie Loco gegen DerBozz sein. Spannend werden aber auch meine Spiele gegen Reyon und June sowie Junes Matches gegen Acro und Zero
Zum Abschluss nochmal konkretisiert meine getippte Abschlusstabelle (ihr seid herzlich eingeladen in die comments Konkurenzprodukte einzubringen):
#01 Farmer
#02 Loco
#03 June
#04 Reyon
#05 Acro
#06 Ghosta
#07 Zero
#08 KnowMe
#09 Rmdx
#10 DerBozz
#11 Lefy
#12 Clash
#13 optik
#14 Eloids
#15 siiesch
#16 TomFra
An den kommenden zwei Sonntagen sowie Montag, den 23.5. werden zahlreiche Partien ausgespielt, die nicht nur Spannung, sondern auch hohes Niveau versprechen. Meiner Ansicht nach sollte ESL.TV sich das nicht entgehen lassen. Bei Sonnenaufgang ist die Zeit der fallenden Sternschnuppen vorbei. Wer will schon Absteiger sehen, wenn er aufstrebende Jungstars haben kann . Das gilt vor allem für Farmer vs. Reyon, June vs. Farmer und Acro vs June aber auch für einige weitere der oben genannten Paarungen.
Ich bewerbe mich hiermit als Cokommentator 
Termine und die Tabelle könnt ihr hier nachschauen.
gl hf gg allerseits.
was ich vergessen habe:
farmer hat die situation auch ausführlich analysiert. ich hoffe dass hier morgen noch seine ansicht in den comments auftaucht. eventuell wird das auch reineditiert
Begegnungen Siegwahr Prognosen
scheinlichkeit
June – Farmer 40 – 60 1-2
Acro – Loco 50 – 50
Reyon – Knowme 70 – 30 2-0
June – Zero 60 – 40 2-1
Eloids – Acro 15 – 85 0-2
Zero – Ghosta 40 – 60 1-2
Loco – derbozz 65 – 35 2-1
Reyon – Farmer 50 – 50
Lefy – Acro 15 – 85 0-2
June – Knowme 55 – 45 2-1
Reyon – Clash 85 – 15 2-0
June – Acro 50 – 50
rmdx – Farmer 35 – 65 1-2
Loco – Eloids 80 – 20 2-0
June – Siieesch 85 – 15 2-0
Spieler Punkte Maps (50-50 Partien*) Punkte Rang
Zunahme
Farmer +6 4-2 (=Reyon) 33 Top4
June +9 7-4 (=Acro) 33 Top4
Acro +6 4-0 (=Loco=June) 27 6.
Reyon +6 4-0 (=Farmer) 33 Top4
Loco +6 4-1 (=Acro) 33 Top4
Ghosta +3 30 5.
*Die Matches mit 50-50 Siegwahrscheinlichkeit habe ich nicht einberechnet. Diese Matches wären also der ausschlaggebende Faktor wer nun welche Ränge einnimmt.
Nicht einberechnet sind also Loco vs Acro ; Reyon vs Farmer ; Acro vs June
die formatierung haut nicht hin, bitte löschen ich versuchs anders
ich finde das eigentlich so schonma ganz spannend, weil man es jetzt direkt dabei hat ohne nochmal extra was runterladen zu müssen, deine einschätzungen nachlesen kann. wer die tabellen richtig lesen möchte, kann sich das file ja saugen.
im prinzip sehen wir das ganze ja ähnlich. interessieren würde mich, ob ich mit deinen vorhersagen in die abstiegsrele käme
Ich habe auch einige Prognosen getroffen und nach diesen geschaut wie die Rangliste aussehen würde.
Da ich das hier nur schwer in den Comments einbinden kann, hier die kleine Textdatei zum downloaden
https://rapidshare.com/files/2901927830/EAS_Prognosen.txt
Viel Spaß
hmmm . . spannenden! wünsche euch beiden viel glück, auch wenn es für KnowMe net mehr so gut aussieht.
selbst wenn es nicht in dieser saison klappen sollte, lass den kopf net hängen und greif nächste saison wieder!
an!!
hau rein
ich traue dir das zu
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